by Tyler Durden

Friday's diesel deal between Trump and Putin wasn't only about diesel. It was also about Kyiv.

New data suggests that the volume of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has again fallen off, despite the consistent assertions from U.S. Central Command that flows are increasing and “building momentum for freedom of navigation.” The latest reversal followed an increased pace of attacks on tankers, and after reports had indicated oil flows were back to pre-war levels.

Joe Biden once promised Americans a gas tax holiday that saved farmers about a dollar a day.

Donald Trump just signed a fuel order in front of a cheering Nebraska crowd.

That order promises real relief at the pump, and the numbers are bigger than Biden's ever were.

Just when it seemed like we had hit a period of relative calm, global events are starting to accelerate again. Within the past 24 hours, there have been a couple of absolutely enormous developments. First of all, Tropical Storm Isaias has become Hurricane Isaias and we are being told that it will make landfall along the Gulf Coast. That is potentially a major problem because the Gulf Coast accounts for over 50 percent of the crude oil refining capacity in the United States.

Bloomberg cites data from the Marine Minerals Administration showing US Gulf offshore oil producers have halted about 1.28 million barrels per day, equivalent to shutting in 63% of regional output.

Natural gas shut-ins reached 1.127 billion cubic feet a day, equivalent to 57% of the region's production.

By noon Central Time, workers from 121 offshore platforms had evacuated, while four rigs had moved outside Hurricane Isaias' cone of uncertainty.

This is a massive temporary hit to US crude supply. For NatGas, the national production impact is much smaller.

by Tyler Durden

Update(1604ET): There are reports that possibly several parked aircraft were damaged or destroyed after the earlier Thursday Houthi ballistic missile attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. And now international reports are saying a slew of airliners are suspending flights to the city, some tentatively for up to a week:

Posted by Tyler Durden, Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

While Russia officially has no problem with the Islamic NATO and even hopes that it'll one day include Iran to fulfill Russia's regional collective security vision, it would be inaccurate to claim that Russia is naïve about the latent threat that this bloc could pose as a result of Turkiye's rivalry with Russia.

BY:  Quoth the Raven, Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

What if the global oil crisis gets much, much worse?

I’m not talking about another $10 move in crude. I’m talking about a genuine global energy emergency, where oil reaches $150 or even $200 a barrel, physical shortages begin shutting down meaningful portions of the global economy, and central banks find themselves confronting an inflationary recession.

An oil tanker caught fire off Russia’s Black Sea coast after being attacked by unmanned boats near Sochi, the Russian Transport Ministry has said. Its 23-member crew of Indian nationals were all rescued and no injuries have been reported.

The Liberian-flagged Aframax Rio, which was carrying crude, was struck by sea drones on Tuesday, according to the ministry. The attack triggered an oil fire in the Black Sea, with emergency crews initially unable to approach the tanker because of the intensity of the blaze.

Western countries have exhausted the oil inventories available to offset supply disruptions from the US-Israeli war with Iran, leaving the market increasingly exposed to further shocks, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy has said. The energy crunch has now spread from crude and refined fuels to global shipping.