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In their analysis of Michael Hartnett's latest Flow show report entitled: Hartnett: How To Trade The Coming End Of US "Exceptionalism"   Zerohedge points out how to position for the coming cyclical stock rotation already starting

Summary:

Authored by GoldFix ZH Edit

In their analysis of Michael Hartnett's latest Flow show report entitled: Hartnett: How To Trade The Coming End Of US "Exceptionalism"   Zerohedge points out how to position for the coming cyclical stock rotation already starting

"This goes back to what Hartnett pointed out  all cyclical assets are now trading at the inflection point in ISM; based on historical relationship to ISM and current valuations. As such the best trades for “long producer, short consumer” in '24 are commodities, mercantilist stock indices & EM ex-China,..."

With their analysis in mind we try to similarly translate Hartnett's lingo for investors in 3 sections

1- From Consuming to Making: Hartnett lays out why the US has done so well (American Exceptionalism) relative to global peers and then describes how the economy will change in the coming months from being consumer driven to being Producer driven.

2- What to Buy: He then gives the trade recommendations to capitalize on such an economic hand-off using his ISM implied valuations and expectations. Those include Commodities, EM stocks, and Industrial Metals like Copper

3- Biden vs. Trump: Finally, he touches on very broadly what he expects the priorities of Biden and Trump should either of them win the election in November.

Here is that analysis excerpted for YouTube subscribers

Timestamps:

  • 0:00- Intro: Covid lows, Japan, Mag 7
  • 4:30- Chart contextual walkthrough
  • 7:55- 3 Things Drive US Exceptionalism:
  • Continues here
  • 11:55- Trades and rationale
  • 16:00-What next?
  • 17:10- Biden vs Trump In a Nutshell

Key Terms

ISM= Institute of Supply Management: outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices.

PMI = Purchasing Mgr Index: aims in providing information regarding the current and future conditions of a business to the decision-makers, analysts and investors of the company. It is boots on the ground info at the production level

Transcript attached

Continues here

 

Tags: CURRENT EVENTS, ECONOMY
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For its victims, war is . . . yes, hell. For the rest of us – the onlooking and supportive patriots – war is an abstraction embedded in ignorance, a.k.a., public relations, served up for public consumption.

At least that’s the way it’s supposed to be. The reality of war should never directly confront the official PR of those waging it. If it does, God help the war industry!

But that’s what’s happening now, as public support for U.S. complicity in Israel’s devastation of Gaza diminishes, indeed, starts turning to outrage. Official spokesmen for the Biden administration, such as John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator for the National Security Council, are forced to start mixing apologetic language in with their unwavering support for the bombing and murder of civilians… excuse me, Israel’s right to defend itself.

“Civilian deaths are happening, and happening at a rate that obviously we’re not comfortable with,” Kirby said in a New Yorker interview. “But,” he quickly added, “it doesn’t mean that they are intentionally trying to wipe the people of Gaza off the map the same way that Hamas wants to wipe the Israeli people off the map.”

Wow, Israel’s actions and official declarations of intent to obliterate Palestine are making the U.S. government uncomfortable. (But Hamas is still the only bad guy.) Oh, if only fragments of actual truth about the war could penetrate such an interview. For instance:

Tags: CORPORATE MEDIA, COVER-UP/ DECEPTIONS/ PROPAGANDA, ISRAEL, PALESTINE, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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In the aftermath of the 9/11 Attacks, the Neocons launched a major campaign promoting war with Iraq, hoping to convince our political class and citizenry that America faced a deadly danger from Saddam Hussein’s WMDs. Influential Neocon sources both inside and outside the George W. Bush administration successfully persuaded much of our elite media to publish numerous high-profile articles declaring that Iraq was secretly developing nuclear and biological weapons in violation of UN sanctions, with Miller’s many Times stories being among the most important of these. The Times then held huge influence among the Democratic Party elites who despised Bush, so her work probably played a crucial role in winning over much of Congress and the rest of the media for our 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Afterward, when no WMDs were found and our Iraq occupation became a widely acknowledged disaster, the Times needed a scapegoat and Miller was selected for that role, forced to resign in 2005 after 27 years as one of the paper’s star reporters, with numerous front-page stories to her credit and sharing a 2002 Pulitzer Prize for her post-9/11 reporting. Although I do think that Miller was guilty of overly relying upon her biased Neocon sources, I also feel that such guilt was much more widely shared and others at the paper could have been similarly condemned.

Tags: 911, CORPORATE MEDIA, COVER-UP/ DECEPTIONS/ PROPAGANDA, HIDDEN HISTORY, IRAQ, ISRAEL
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White people have been destroying white people for as long as I remember. I don’t mean only in military wars, such as WW I and WW II, which destroyed the English and Europe and left them as American vassel states. In wars of a different kind the damage has been as terrible. In fact, worse, because it is not only a genocide of white people but a genocide of their culture of freedom and accountable government.

(Note: in this article I include Jews among white people. Some Jews maintain that “white” applies only to gentiles and that Jews are Semites.)

So that this column doesn’t get too long for Americans to have the patience to read, I will start at an arbitrary point in time: The destruction of neighborhood schools. It began with Brown vs. Board of Education when an unintelligent and socially illiterate Supreme Court ruled that going to school with your own kind was “unequal” and a violation of the 14th Amendment of equal treatment under the law.

Liberals aimed Brown vs. Board of Education at the Southern states that had comprised the Confederate States of America. They intended a second Reconstruction of the South, but the supreme court’s ruling affected the entire country.

Tags: CURRENT EVENTS
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For the benefit of the Jewish reader who doesn't go undercover as a Palestinian, "fauda" is an Arabic word that means chaos. I'm one of those people who put the Israeli TV series "Fauda" on their "don't watch" list, but if you're one of those people who are waiting for Season 5, go all the way and do a search for videos of real "mista'arvim," as members of the undercover Israeli military unit that "Fauda" turned into romantic heroes are called in Hebrew.

You don't have to go far back: On January 30, a dozen Israel Defense Forces soldiers disguised as doctors and nurses stormed the Ibn Sina Hospital in the West Bank town of Jenin and executed three male patients in their beds.

One was a 15-year-old boy who had been paralyzed by an Israeli drone strike in early November. Of course, the IDF Spokesperson's Office said that the three were terrorists (its announcements are holy writ.)

Tags: CORPORATE MEDIA, COVER-UP/ DECEPTIONS/ PROPAGANDA, ENTERTAINMENT, ISRAEL, PALESTINE, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary in Michigan will be the biggest indicator yet for how concerned U.S. President Joe Biden should be of the sizable discontent among his base over his policies regarding the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

Over the past several weeks, a campaign urging voters to select "uncommitted" on their primary ballots has gathered momentum – aiming to both voice real-time displeasure and send a stark message about the potential consequences of an unchanged approach come the November election.

Michigan has been the epicenter of internal Democratic outrage over Biden's approach on the Gaza war, but the discontent predates October 7. Biden's perceived failure to hold Israel accountable for its actions has alienated the state's significant Arab-American and Muslim-American populations.

Tags: ISRAEL, PALESTINE, POLITICS/ ELECTIONS/ CORRUPTION, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS, WHITE HOUSE
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Ongoing fighting on the Lebanon-Israel border may well get much worse, according to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Commenting on the ongoing ceasefire talks looking to at least temporarily stop the open-ended offensive against the Gaza Strip, Gallant says that Israel will “increase the fire in the north independently” if there was a pause.

Interestingly, the only thing that was holding up Hezbollah in supporting their own ceasefire with Israel was the ongoing war in Gaza. If somehow that war came to an end, a deal in the north should be much more possible even if Israel sees it as a license to escalate.

Gallant says the fighting will continue until Hezbollah is forced from the border and displaced Israelis are able to return home to the north. He also said Hezbollah isn’t able to replace commanders that Israel has killed.

Tags: ISRAEL, LEBANON, PALESTINE, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Israel has released its first draft of its plans for post-war Gaza. Throughout the four months of a brutal onslaught, Israeli forces have decimated the Strip and killed 30,000 Palestinians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s post-war plans call for “operational freedom of action in the entire Gaza Strip without a time limit” and “demilitarization” of Palestinians.

The Israeli government first released the document to some media outlets on Thursday. According to the translation from NBC News, the document says, Israel will “maintain its operational freedom of action in the entire Gaza Strip, without a time limit,” and “The security perimeter being created in the Gaza Strip on the border with Israel will remain as long as there is a security need for it.”

Israel is also requesting control of the border between Egypt and Gaza. Netanyahu’s plan may face resistance in Washington and Cairo. Egypt has demanded that Israel not deploy its forces along the border. The US has asked Israel not to expand buffer zones in Gaza. However, Tel Aviv has ignored nearly all of Washington’s requests over the past four months with no impact on US aid shipments to Israel.

Tags: ISRAEL, PALESTINE, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS, WHITE HOUSE
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The White House has asked the Israeli government to end attacks on police in Gaza. Targeting the civil police force has caused more chaos in the Strip and made aid distribution nearly impossible. US officials believe that the Israeli actions to prevent aid deliveries in Gaza are creating a humanitarian crisis similar to the situation that once existed in Mogadishu.

Axios reported speaking with American and Israeli officials who said Washington has asked Tel Aviv to stop targeting the police force in Gaza. The police force was working with international aid groups to distribute aid in the Strip.

As almost all of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza are struggling to find food to eat, aid convoys have been mobbed and prevented from reaching their destination. The police force halted the escorts after Israeli forces began targeting the police.

Tags: ISRAEL, PALESTINE, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Under the cover of the Israeli genocide and ethnic cleansing campaign against the Gaza Strip, which has killed nearly 30,000 Palestinians including more than 12,000 children, Tel Aviv is drastically ramping up home demolitions in occupied East Jerusalem.

According to Al Jazeera, in the eastern side of the city, the Jerusalem municipality has been escalating home demolitions since the brutal Israeli onslaught in Gaza began last year. East Jerusalem, where 362,000 Palestinians live, has been illegally occupied by the Israeli military for almost sixty years along with the rest of the West Bank.

Tel Aviv’s pseudo justification for their organized destruction of Palestinian homes is the claim that these residences are built without permits, which the municipality usually only issues to exclusively Jewish neighborhoods. Therefore, Palestinians are left without options and must build their homes in the absence of these permits, making 28% of their East Jerusalem homes “illegal.” Municipal elections will be held at the end of the month, in a bid to appeal to their Jewish constituencies, activists fear candidates are demanding more Palestinian homes be bulldozed.

Tags: ISRAEL, PALESTINE, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Israel is using bureaucratic red tape to delay the entry of aid workers into the West Bank and Gaza. The policy has led to fewer humanitarian aid workers providing services to Palestinians, as many children are on the brink of starvation.

According to Haaretz, the Population and Immigration Authority is refusing to grant visas for employees of international aid agencies that operate in Gaza and the West Bank. Officials in Tel Aviv claim the visas had not been issued due to bureaucratic rearrangement. However, aid workers told Haaretz they believe the denials are politically motivated.

The Israeli outlet reports that as well as not approving new visas, it is refusing to extend visas for aid workers already in Gaza and the West Bank. The lack of workers has disrupted the activities of several aid organizations operating in the Strip.

Tags: ISRAEL, PALESTINE, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained that if Tel Aviv agrees to a new hostage deal with Hamas, it will only “delay” the Israeli attack on Rafah. International aid organizations have warned that an attack on the city of 1.5 million will be devastating to the civilian population of Gaza.

On Friday, the US, Egypt, and Qatar presented a new hostage deal that would see the release of 40 Israeli captives in exchange for a six-week pause in fighting. The deal was negotiated without the input of Tel Aviv and Hamas. While US and Israeli officials have presented the hostage release proposal as progress, neither Tel Aviv nor Hamas have signed on to it.

Hamas’ top priority is ending the Israeli onslaught. Netanyahu’s remarks signal Israel is unwilling to end the war until every city in Gaza is destroyed. “Once we begin the Rafah operation, the intense phase of the fighting is weeks away from completion. Not months,” Netanyahu told CBS. “If we don’t have a deal, we’ll do it anyway.”

Tags: ISRAEL, PALESTINE, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Jens Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian Prime Minister and now Secretary General of NATO should be fired now, before it is too late. He announced he is giving Ukraine “permission” to use its soon to be delivered F-16s to launch attacks inside Russia.

This is equivalent to a NATO declaration of war. It is an irrational and dangerous move that needs to be quashed as soon as possible.

Not only is Stoltenberg an uber hawk, but he totally misunderstands NATO’s purpose.  If he is allowed to stay in office, he will lead NATO into a European war that might well include nuclear weapons. Above all, Stoltenberg doesn’t grasp that NATO is a defensive, not an offensive, alliance.

Tags: NATO, RUSSIA/ UKRAINE /BELARUS /CRIMEA, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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The planned expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank is “inconsistent” with international law, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, potentially signaling a policy shift for Washington.

Speaking to the media in Buenos Aires on Friday, the top US diplomat addressed reports that Tel Aviv intends to construct thousands of new settlement units across the West Bank, saying the White House was “disappointed” by the news.

“Our administration maintains a firm opposition to settlement expansion, and in our judgment this only weakens, doesn’t strengthen Israel’s security,” Blinken said, adding that the settlements were “inconsistent with international law“ and “counterproductive to reaching enduring peace.”

Webmaster addition: This may just be more pre-election posturing.

Tags: ISRAEL, PALESTINE, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Joe Biden administration officials admitted that six weeks into the undeclared war in Yemen, the US and UK strikes have failed to erode the Houthis military capabilities. The officials said the US is surprised at the Houthis’ military capabilities and that Washington has a limited understanding of how advanced their weapons systems are.

On January 11, President Biden ordered the first round of strikes in Yemen. The White House claimed the attack was designed to force the Houthis to end attacks on Israeli-linked shipping.  The Houthis, or Ansar Allah, are attacking ships they suspect to have ties with Israel to pressure Tel Aviv to end the genocide in Gaza.

Without any Congressional approval, Biden has ordered strikes on Yemen nearly every day. The attacks have not achieved their desired effects as the Houthis have expanded their targets to include US and UK-linked shipping. Last week, missiles fired from Yemen hit multiple ships in the waters off the country’s coast. One ship suffered significant damage and is leaking oil.

Tags: MIDDLE EAST, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS, WHITE HOUSE
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NATO Secretary-General Jen Stoltenberg said Ukraine has the right to hit Russian military targets outside of Ukraine. The remarks were made as members of the North Atlantic alliance are preparing to send Kyiv weapons with longer ranges. The Kremlin has explained that it will claim more Ukrainian territory to offset the threat presented by the long-range arms.

“Ukraine has the right to self-defense,” Stoltenberg told Radio Free Europe on Tuesday. “And that includes also striking legitimate military targets, Russian military targets, outside Ukraine. That is international law and, of course, Ukraine has the right to do so, to protect itself.” This is the first time the NATO chief endorsed Ukrainian attacks inside of Russia.

After Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, the US and its allies began massive weapons shipments to Kyiv. However, the Western arms shipments were limited to shorter-range munitions in an effort not to provoke a massive war with Russia. Over time, the concern that Moscow will escalate to direct war with NATO over Ukraine has lessened and the White House has provided Ukraine with more advanced weapons systems.

Tags: NATO, RUSSIA/ UKRAINE /BELARUS /CRIMEA, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS, WHITE HOUSE
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Since October, the Israeli press has uncovered damning evidence showing that an untold number of the Israeli victims during the October 7 Hamas attack were in fact killed by the IDF response.

While it is indisputable that the Hamas-led attackers were responsible for many Israeli civilian deaths that day, reports from Israel indicate that the IDF in multiple cases fired on and killed Israeli civilians. It’s an important issue that demands greater transparency—both in terms of the questions it raises about IDF policy, and in terms of the black-and-white narrative Israel has advanced about what happened on October 7, used to justify its ongoing assault on the Gaza Strip.

Indeed, IDF responsibility for Israeli deaths has been a repeated topic of discussion in the Israeli press, accompanied by demands for investigations. But the most US readers have gotten from their own press about the issue is a dismissive piece from the Washington Post about October 7 “truthers.”

Tags: CORPORATE MEDIA, COVER-UP/ DECEPTIONS/ PROPAGANDA, ISRAEL, PALESTINE, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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The US and several other Western countries cut funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) after Israel claimed that several members of the organization participated in the Hamas attack on October 7. The US intelligence community has “low confidence” in the veracity of the Israeli assertions. The Washington Post reports having evidence of a single UNRWA member in Israel.

In January, Tel Aviv began circulating the claim that 12 members of UNRWA attacked Israel on October 7 and that scores of other members have ties to Hamas. The release of the claims was timed with the International Court of Justice ruling that Israel was plausibly committing genocide in Gaza.

Earlier this month, Tel Aviv released a summary of its intelligence for the assertions to several news outlets. After reviewing the Israeli dossier, multiple outlets reported that Israel had provided no evidence to back the claims that members of UNRWA are aligned with Hamas.

Tags: COVER-UP/ DECEPTIONS/ PROPAGANDA, ISRAEL, PALESTINE, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS, WHITE HOUSE
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Israel’s targeting of Gaza’s hospitals has left its population of around 2.5 million Palestinians without adequate access to healthcare.

Tens of thousands have been wounded in Israeli attacks but those with long-term and terminal illnesses are also left with nowhere to go for treatment.

Cancer patients and others who cannot leave have been left to their fate as the besieged territory’s health facilities shut down.

The Turkish-Palestinian Friendship Hospital, which served as the most important facility for cancer patients in Gaza, halted operations on 30 October because of extensive damage caused by air strikes. 

Dr Subhi Skaik, the hospital's director general, announced the closure on Facebook, citing infrastructure damage.

Tags: ISRAEL, PALESTINE, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Israeli air strikes on Deir al-Balah, in central Gaza, have killed at least 40 people and wounded over 100 others, in one of the deadliest attacks on Palestinians in days. 

The majority of those killed and wounded were women and children, according to the government media office in Gaza. 

Standing outside Al-Aqsa Martyrs hospital, a man cradled the body of his dead baby, which was covered in a white, bloodied sheet.

The man, who did not give his name, told Middle East Eye that his son, Muhannad, was born on 10 October, three days after the start of the war.

Tags: ISRAEL, PALESTINE, TORTURE/ WAR CRIMES, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Jordanian Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh has denied on Sunday the existence of a land corridor from Jordan to Israel to bypass attacks by Yemen's Houthis on Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea.

Khasawneh slammed the reports as "fabrications" against his country, adding that no changes were made to transport routes in and out of Jordan for the last 25 years.

His remarks came during a televised government briefing on Jordan's economic performance during which he rejected speculation over Amman's position on the war on Gaza.

"It is a disgrace for anyone to doubt our official stance on the war on Gaza," he said, adding: "We do not accept any manipulation of our position on the war on Gaza."

Tags: COVER-UP/ DECEPTIONS/ PROPAGANDA, ECONOMY, ISRAEL, MIDDLE EAST, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS
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Attacks by Yemen's Huthi rebels on commercial ships in the Red Sea have sent insurance premiums surging, exacerbating costs already stretched by soaring freight rates and longer alternative trade routes.

The Huthis have carried out relentless attacks since November on shipping transiting the Red Sea, a maritime hub through which 12 percent of global trade usually passes.

Maritime container transport has sunk by almost one third so far in 2024 compared with a year earlier, according to IMF data.

The Iran-backed Huthis argue the attacks are in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza during the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Tags: ECONOMY, GREAT BRITAIN/ UK, MIDDLE EAST, WAR/DRAFT/ VETERAN AFFAIRS, WHITE HOUSE
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