Gallup's "Likely Voters" Poll: A Snapshot Or A Hypothesis? | WHAT REALLY HAPPENED


Gallup's "Likely Voters" Poll: A Snapshot Or A Hypothesis?

As the Huffington Post reported Monday, the Gallup/USA Today poll's results among "likely voters" raised more questions than they answered. By showing a lead for McCain that contradicted Gallup's own independent tracking results, the poll prompted Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz to ask how Gallup and USA Today selected the "likely voters" who purportedly now favor the Arizona Republican. While the answer to that methodological question (and several others) remains a bit murky, USA Today's full writeup in Tuesday's dead-tree edition offers a few more details -- and one other nugget of information that should drive skepticism of their results through the roof.

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