With five and a half weeks to go to the June 23 referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, Brexit now looks certain to win. Here's why:
1) In order to secure victory, Remain should be 8-10 points clear by now in the polls. This is because turnout will be much higher on the Brexit side. Yet, polls of polls show a dead heat, with a slight lead recently for Brexit. See analysis here, also on why online polls (favouring Brexit) are likely to be more reliable.
2) Remain has fired off all of its big guns. But there has been no movement in the polls. They don't have any options left. See here for why.
3) David Cameron is a technocrat. He does not have the mental capacity, or the charisma, to engage an issue as substantive as Britain's membership of the EU. This is why he is so easy to ridicule. See here.