If the Syrian regime’s violent crackdown on the civilian protest movement triggers a massive humanitarian crisis, forcing millions of refugees to flee to Turkey’s southern border, some analysts claim this would potentially constitute an Article V situation, which could lead Ankara to call for a NATO collective defense initiative.

In an interview with Sunday’s Zaman last week, ?lter Turan, professor of political science at ?stanbul Bilgi University, claimed that “any decision on Syrian intervention that is not backed by the UN would be not a legal, but a political, choice.”

NATO’s “right to collective defense” does not require the UN to pass a resolution authorizing such an intervention, but it would be desirable to have the UN on board if NATO takes military action. Whether or not NATO launches an intervention will be the sole decision of treaty partners, who will assess the severity of the perceived threat.