As one Asian analyst put it, "pressure can be good; but too much pressure can crack the fragile security architecture and split ASEAN." While several ASEAN countries supported the U.S. move, some had reservations. Predictably, the Philippines supported the U.S. "pivot" and involvement in the South China Sea disputes. But other ASEAN members were more wary, including Singapore and Malaysia.

Indonesia was alarmed. Its sea lanes and air corridors will presumably be used by the U.S. military to effectively patrol the South China Sea. In short, the game has changed. Not only has the U.S. move precipitated a possible split in ASEAN, it has eroded ASEAN centrality in security policy in Southeast Asia. Unity in the East Asian Summit and on the South China Sea issues is under stress and may become subservient to the U.S.-China rivalry.